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Weather Prospects for the Solar Eclipse

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Mike Meynell
(@mikem)
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I've yet to see any consistency in the weather forecast for tomorrow.

The MetOffice are still showing heavy cloud in the morning, with clearing conditions later in the day:

Meteoblue show it clearing much earlier (possibly early enough to see some of the eclipse):

Metcheck show clear skies all day!!!

Clear Outside also show clear skies, but from between 9am and 10am... early enough for us!

Who to believe? I guess we haven't got long to find out!

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 1:36 pm
Sumitra
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Who to believe? I guess we haven’t got long to find out!

Ha! Decision theory to the rescue:
Pick the one you like most, and you risk being disappointed...
Pick the one you like least, and at least, you have a chance of being pleasantly surprised.

More seriously, this must be because ~50% of the time, the past data on this date with these conditions, it was clear, the other 50% it was overcast, so some forecasts take a pessimistic approach to choose which situation happened 50% of the time.

Not surprised the Met Office would be taking the pessimistic approach!

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 2:00 pm
Mike Meynell
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Well, I am, by nature, an optimist... you have to be to enjoy astronomy in this country!

It'll be fun whatever happens.

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 2:04 pm
Sumitra
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Well, I am, by nature, an optimist… you have to be to enjoy astronomy in this country!
It’ll be fun whatever happens.

Agreed, I'm so optimistic I made those yesterday night. I was meant to receive the solar filters yesterday and still waiting for them now. Hopefully I'm able to complete my DIY solar filter!

Ready for the eclipse, I only need the solar filter to arrive and the clouds to clear! by Sumitra_S, on Flickr

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 2:09 pm
Sumitra
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PS I chose colourful card as a conversational piece, should the clouds be in the way and need to have fun with something! 😉

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 2:11 pm
Mike Meynell
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Agreed, I’m so optimistic I made those yesterday night.

Very good! In colour too!

Do you still want me to bring a spare tripod?

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 2:13 pm
Sumitra
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Very good! In colour too!

Thanks! 😉 it had to be in colour, I don't really do B&W photography 😉

Do you still want me to bring a spare tripod?

Oh yes, could you if it's not too much hassle? I've made it to London today with a little suicase, 2 DSLRs, 1 Compact, the iPad which I've realised has a timelapse function on!!

So several options:
Option clear skies: I'd like to do a timelapse of the eclipse, requiring my only remote for the 70D and do the timelapse with the iPad (also, much quicker for video processing as it'll be done automatically). Do you think I could set it on a table somewhere? I've no tripod for the ipad/iphone.
I could alternatively investigate if I can use my phone as an intervalometer for the 70D... and then can have both DSLRs on tripod, timelapse mode (Sun and People).

Option not so clear skies: I'm only going to take photos during break in the clouds, I can keep the 1100D on timelapse mode with the remote and would need the tripod).

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 2:21 pm
Mike Meynell
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Oh yes, could you if it’s not too much hassle?

Not a problem. It's currently sitting in the hallway, along with all the other equipment I'm bringing tomorrow, so I'll just stick it in the car.

I'm not sure we will have a spare table for your iPad, as space is at a premium. Let's see how it goes in the morning.

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 3:10 pm
Sumitra
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Not a problem. It’s currently sitting in the hallway, along with all the other equipment I’m bringing tomorrow, so I’ll just stick it in the car.

I’m not sure we will have a spare table for your iPad, as space is at a premium. Let’s see how it goes in the morning.

That's great, thanks!
You don't have a trigger trap dongle by any chance? Although I suspect these are different for all cameras? All smartphone apps seem to require hardware, and the EOS remote on the phone doesn't support timelapse. >(

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 3:15 pm
Mike Meynell
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You don’t have a trigger trap dongle by any chance?

Yes, I do. I'll bring it along. I have a few different adapters for cameras, so will bring all I have. Hopefully one of them will fit!

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 3:23 pm
Sumitra
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Yes, I do. I’ll bring it along. I have a few different adapters for cameras, so will bring all I have. Hopefully one of them will fit!

Fantastic! So we're all set to have a brilliant event! 🙂

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 3:31 pm
Sumitra
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Well, with this, we have likelihoods! 85% is great! And I like that there is a 0% chance of total cloud cover!

 

Eclipse March 2015 MetCheck likelihods by Sumitra_S, on Flickr

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 3:41 pm
Sumitra
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Well, sadly it seems that the shop didn't post it to the correct address I asked them to, and so I have no solar filter to finish my DIY filter. Grrr. I wonder if I have time to find a shop today!

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 4:17 pm
Christina Chester
(@christinachester)
Posts: 215
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Oh no! Sorry to hear that your filter hasn't arrived in time 🙁

Did you find anywhere in time in the end?

 

RE the weather reports that you have both shared. I'm REALLY hoping that the clearer predictions pan out. Can't wait - SUPER excited.

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 6:12 pm
Sumitra
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Oh no! Sorry to hear that your filter hasn’t arrived in time :(

Did you find anywhere in time in the end?

Yes thanks!! It is not going to be as funky as the DIY one I had ststarted making though. 🙁
It's a proper serious one, no ducked tape, not orange and turquoise
Left to use those tubes as high viz leg warmers for my tripod I guess, can't let my handy work go to waste!
I even found solar glasses for my friend at the same time 🙂

Thrilled too! See you tomorrow!

 
Posted : 19/03/2015 9:54 pm
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